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Democratic chaos: Guillermo Lasso, presidential elections and the Colombianization of Ecuador
September 14, 2023
Author:
María Paula Manrique Salcedo, Felipe Caputo Silva
On Wednesday, May 17, 2023, the President of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, used his constitutional powers to implement the so-called "Crossed Death" law, one day after...
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On Wednesday, May 17, 2023, Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso invoked his constitutional powers to implement the so-called "Crossed Death" mechanism, one day after the start of his impeachment trial for alleged embezzlement of public funds. Crossed Death is a constitutional mechanism that dissolves the National Assembly and calls for new presidential elections. As a result of this mechanism, the presidential elections were brought forward, since Lasso's term was supposed to last until 2025; however, the electoral contest is currently underway, albeit with serious problems that threaten Ecuadorian democracy.
This analysis, rather than simply describing the events that Ecuador has experienced during its political crisis, aims to shed light on the phenomenon we have termed the "Colombianization of Ecuadorian politics," which could explain the impact of drug trafficking and organized crime on the democratic institutional system. Indeed, two candidates have been assassinated during the election campaign, which not only recalls several events that occurred in Colombia during the 1980s, but also represents the worst manifestation of political violence: the physical elimination of political figures.
Interrupted presidency
“The president may use the cross-dissolution only once and only in the first three years of his term, for three reasons: if he considers that the Assembly has performed functions that do not correspond to it, if it obstructs the National Development Plan or if there is a serious political crisis and internal commotion” (Constitution of the Republic of Ecuador, 2008).
The current president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, elected on May 24, 2021, is facing a crisis in his presidency after deciding to implement, for the first time in Ecuador, a constitutional mechanism known as "mutual dissolution," described in Article 148 of the constitution. This article stipulates that Lasso requested the dissolution of the opposition-majority National Assembly, which had initiated impeachment proceedings against him, thus triggering the final ground for his removal. The process began on May 17 of this year when the parliamentary opposition accused the president of embezzlement (peculation) after he failed to terminate the contract between Flopec—the Ecuadorian Petroleum Fleet—and the Amazonas Tankers consortium, which was seeking to provide transportation for petroleum products. This situation has had serious economic consequences for the state treasury. Lasso denied these accusations and asserted that the action was an attempt at destabilization.
Following the signing of the decree by Lasso, the law stipulates that the president and legislators may run for reelection, provided they are serving their first consecutive term. Furthermore, elected officials will remain in office until the end of the interrupted legislative session, in this case, May 23, 2025. Finally, it gives the National Electoral Council (CNE) a maximum of seven days to call for early general elections, which must be held within 90 days. By using this constitutional recourse, Lasso risks his presidency, and the National Assembly risks a possible loss of its powers; however, Lasso stated
“This is the greatest honor of my life; however, far above the office of president, I love democracy. Far above the presidency, I love freedom. And if my duty as president requires me to step down to protect democracy, then I will do so.”
upon announcing that he would not compete in the elections. His movement, CREO, did not present any candidates for either the presidency or the assembly.
General elections
In line with the above, the candidates who initially entered this election were nine: (i) Luisa Gonzales of the Citizen Revolution Movement party, (ii) Cristian Zurita of the Construye party, (iii) Fernando Villavicencio of the Concertación movement, (iv) Yaku Pérez of the Somos Agua political organization, (v) Jan Topic of the Por un País sin Miedo movement, (vi) Otto Sonnenholzner of the Avanza party, (vii) Daniel Novoa of the Acción Democrática Nacional party, (viii) Xavier Herbas of the Reto movement, and (ix) Bolívar Armijos of the Amigos movement. The early elections were held on Sunday, August 20. None of the candidates obtained the necessary threshold to win the presidency in the first round, making a second round on October 15 essential.
In that regard, the results of the first contest were as follows: “Luisa Gonzales (33.24%), Daniel Noboa (23.78%), Cristian Zurita (16.49%), Jan Topic (14.65%), Otto Sonnenholzner (7.09%), Yaku Pérez (3.92%), Xavier Herbas (0.49%), and Bolívar Armijos (0.35%)” (CNN, 2023; Statista, 2023). Although Luisa Gonzales came in first place, Fernando Villavicencio, the candidate assassinated on August 9, 2023, in Quito, had previously been polling as Ecuador's favorite. Villavicencio, a journalist by profession who dedicated his career to exposing corruption cases, gained recognition and popularity thanks to his investigations, one of which uncovered a bribery scheme that put Rafael Correa and high-ranking officials in his government in a difficult position. By 2020, Correa had received an eight-year sentence for these crimes, forcing him into self-imposed exile in Europe.
His presidential campaign was projected to be a success. Villavicencio considered himself a centrist candidate, known for his fight against illegal armed groups. Days before his assassination, Villavicencio claimed to have received threats from one of the Sinaloa cartel's leaders. The candidate described these threats as the mafia's response to feeling threatened by his government plan; however, he always maintained that he was not afraid of them. Nevertheless, a few days later he was gunned down. These assassinations suggest that violence at the hands of armed groups is taking hold in Ecuador.
The second round of voting, scheduled for October 15, will pit Luisa Gonzales, the first woman to achieve such a high vote count in Ecuador, against Daniel Noboa, who surprised many analysts. Although he performed well in the debate, he was not among the frontrunners in the polls. According to the New York Times (2023), the economy and security appear poised to be the main issues in the runoff election. This is a response to the unprecedented wave of violence unleashed by street gangs and prisons, along with drug cartels, which has increased homicide rates and directly impacted tourism.
General elections
In addition to the political crisis, Ecuador faces a far worse crisis: drug-related violence. The dollarized economy, lax tax regulations that facilitate money laundering (BBC, 2023), and especially Ecuador's port areas have made the country particularly attractive to transnational drug trafficking and organized crime networks. In this sense, "the term 'Colombianization' originated in the last century to describe the growing violence occurring in all countries of the region" (Morato, M, 2008, p. 9). It was also recently used by Andrés Pastrana and in 2010 by Ernesto Samper to refer to the situation in Mexico.
Colombianization refers to situations replicated in other countries that were observed in Colombia.
During the 1980s and continuing to the present day, the term "homicide" gained prominence in Ecuadorian public discourse following the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio. This event brought back memories of the Medellín Cartel's murder of presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galán on August 18, 1989. After Villavicencio's death, the discussion intensified because murder and crime rates in Ecuador have increased. For example, in 2022, there were between 4,603 and 4,800 intentional homicides, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (RT, 2023). The situation in 2023 was not much better, with 6,089 homicides reported by March. The lowest point was recorded in 2016 and 2017 (Ministry of the Interior, 2023), coinciding with the beginning of the drug trafficking wave in the country (BBC, 2023).
Meanwhile, the presence of criminal gangs and drug trafficking has reached the point where, while Colombia remains the largest producer, Ecuador is currently the largest exporter, according to the UN (BBC, 2023). Similarly, the country is no longer the bastion of peace that Rafael Correa claimed, and furthermore, the US State Department has advised travelers to exercise greater caution when visiting Ecuador (RT, 2023). This is particularly concerning given that Ecuador was the top destination in the region for US citizens, according to government recommendations.
In that sense, although several of the events seen in Ecuador are similar to those seen in Colombia, there are several fundamental points that are not similar, such as the motivations of Colombians and Ecuadorians to dedicate themselves to drug trafficking, as well as the historical moment that is lived, since currently the world is much more globalized and, therefore, illicit activities are divided among a variety of groups to reach the same end that, in the past, was carried out by a single actor such as the Medellín cartel, or the Cali cartel (BBC, 2023).
As a consequence of this scenario, concerns about Ecuador are valid, since its institutions have been infiltrated by criminal corruption, and the presidential candidates do not seem to have enough ideas or character to confront the drug trafficking phenomenon effectively; instead, the methods used to combat crime have been similar to those used in Colombia and other countries, which are practically obsolete and ineffective.
In conclusion, Guillermo Lasso's use of the "mutual dissolution" clause to dissolve the Assembly and his own presidency, in order to force early elections, has unleashed a series of tumultuous events in Ecuador. The political violence, including the assassination of presidential candidates, has brought to mind dark moments in Colombia's history, leading to deep concern about the weakening of democracy in Ecuador.
The election of a new president for Ecuador is inevitable. The reasons for this early election, stemming from alleged corruption, will add to the significant democratic crisis the South American country is experiencing due to the escalating violence fueled by drug trafficking. In this context, the challenges facing the winner will center on restoring the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches, as well as developing innovative and effective anti-drug policies that move beyond traditional approaches to combating drugs. To this end, the next government could seek support from other countries in the region.
Ultimately, the enormous challenges facing the Americas can be summarized in the global criminal network centered on drug trafficking and other illicit activities that lead to the erosion of democratic institutions. In this regard, the most sensible course of action would be to rethink the modus operandi of transnational crime and distribute tasks equitably to combat drug trafficking at its root causes and unique characteristics, depending on the country where it operates. This approach would offer multiple learning opportunities for the various countries involved (Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and the United States), and solutions could focus on objectives such as: curbing the increase in political and social violence, addressing structural social needs that motivate disadvantaged sectors to join criminal groups, and disrupting the global economic exchange network for drugs—no longer through a purely armed approach, but through a much more intelligent and precise one that avoids unnecessary loss of life.
References
Arciniegas Alexander. (2023, August 24). The Colombianization of Ecuador.
BBC. (2023, August 20). What is the cross-dissolution that led to Sunday's elections in Ecuador (and why will the winner be elected for less than 2 years)? BBC. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cg3wjlnqnq8o
CNN. (2023, May 16). Who is Guillermo Lasso? This is the life and career of the president of Ecuador. CNN. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/05/16/quien-es-guillermo-lasso-ecuador-orix/
CNN. (2023, May 16). Who is Guillermo Lasso? This is the life and career of the president of Ecuador. CNN. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/05/16/quien-es-guillermo-lasso-ecuador-orix/
El Nacional. (2023, August 12). Andrés Pastrana: "We are witnessing the Colombianization of Ecuador." El Nacional. https://www.elnacional.com/mundo/andres-pastrana-estamos-viendo-la-colombianizacion-del-ecuador/
El Español. (2023, May 17). Guillermo Lasso dissolves Ecuador's Assembly and calls early elections amid impeachment proceedings. El Español. https://www.elespanol.com/mundo/america/20230517/presidente-ecuatoriano-guillermo-lasso-disuelve-gobierno-elecciones/764423789_0.html
Inés Santaeuliana. (2023, August 20). Election results in Ecuador: Correísta Luisa González will face businessman Daniel Noboa in the second round. El País. https://elpais.com/america/2023-08-21/resultados-de-las-elecciones-en-ecuador-el-correismo-encabeza-la-carrera-para-la-segunda-vuelta-seguido-del-empresario-noboa.html
Ponce, Thalíe. (2023, August 21). Luisa González and Daniel Noboa poised to advance to the second round in Ecuador. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/es/2023/08/21/espanol/ecuador-elecciones-resultados.html
Statista Research Department. (2023, August 21). Percentage of votes obtained by candidates in the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections of August 20, 2023. Statista Research Department. https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/1406829/resultados-de-las-elecciones-de-ecuador-2023-ganadores-de-la-primera-vuelta/
Romero, E. (2023, August 16). The “Colombianization” of Ecuador? The roots of the violence plaguing the country on the eve of elections. RT News. https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/476586-ecuador-aumento-violencia-narcotrafico-acciones-politica