Protests in Peru in 2022: A sign of its political crisis.

Despite promises of change with the arrival of Pedro Castillo, social, economic, and political instability in Peru has not improved. This can be explained by two reasons. First, there has been a failure to implement the provisions of the new government's plan; and second, there is a clear disconnect between the realities experienced by the Peruvian population and the actions taken by the executive branch and institutional channels to "solve" the country's problems. Thus, as seen with the rise in fuel and fertilizer prices, Peruvian citizens raised their voices and took to the streets to express their concern about the government's indifference to the harmful effects of its decisions. In response, Castillo demonstrated his complete inability to address the concerns of his electorate, ultimately labeling and minimizing the protesters as "leaders and ringleaders" of illegal armed groups (Fowks, 2022).

The protests in Peru began on March 28, as did other mobilizations across the region. This situation demonstrates the insecurity and fragility of Latin American governments in economic terms. Therefore, the current weakness of Latin American states and the subsequent economic crisis in the region can be considered related to COVID-19 and its implications for issues such as trade, spending, and development. For example, in Peru, it was projected that inflation in 2021 would reach 7.4%, a considerably high figure that is repeated in most countries in the region (BBC News Mundo, 2021).

Source: (BBC News Mundo, 2022)

Therefore, it is logical that the actions initially taken by the Peruvian government, such as establishing a curfew in Lima and the Port of Callao, with the aim of preventing potential riots and road blockades, led to an increase in demonstrations and dissent against Castillo and his cabinet (La FM, 2022). The repercussions of this measure spread rapidly, creating a sense of illegitimacy and distrust, which prompted citizens to take to the streets, as this regulation would confine approximately 10 million people to their homes all day, preventing them from working. Consequently, the protests reached other cities across the country, including Lima, and the regions of Piura, Chiclayo, La Libertad, Junín, Ica, Arequipa, San Martín, Amazonas, and Ucayali (BBC News Mundo, 2021).

In accordance with the facts, it is no exaggeration to say that Castillo's government lacks the legitimacy and experience necessary to effectively address public discontent. Therefore, the transport workers' union called for a truce with the government and the establishment of a dialogue to reach a balance regarding prices and the country's situation (Fowks, 2022). However, the current government has not taken action, demonstrating its lack of commitment to reaching agreements with the affected unions and sectors. This has led the public to continue declaring that "the president is a traitor" and that the protesters are not part of illegal groups, but rather people with needs who are exercising their right to be heard. Another reason for Peru's current situation is its structural political crisis, as the country has had five presidents in the last five years—a phenomenon stemming from corruption and the internal polarization of its elites.

Furthermore, it is imperative to point out that the price of fuels and fertilizers in Peru is dependent on factors external to the country. In this regard, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia plays a significant role, given that Russia has been one of the main consumers and exporters of the products demanded in the Latin American country. Therefore, without access to advanced technology, product purchases, and trade relations, the situation in Latin America, specifically in Peru, demonstrates the interconnectedness of the market and how this can further weaken a country already in crisis (CNN, 2022).

Russia's military operation in Ukraine has led countries like the United States and the European Union to sever ties with Russia. This means that Russia, one of the world's largest oil exporters, is unable to supply other countries, such as Peru. This situation arises because most of the fuel used in Peru is imported from Russia. Similarly, the oil crisis has impacted other sectors, causing the March inflation rate to rise to 9.54% in the food and fuel sectors—a rate not seen in over 26 years, according to the Central Bank of Peru (CNN, 2022).

In short, Peru's current situation stems from both internal and external factors. On the one hand, there are internal structural problems such as institutional and political instability; on the other, there are new external circumstances such as the conflict in Ukraine and the health emergency caused by COVID-19. Given this context, it is reasonable to expect that the demonstrations will continue until the various sectors within the mobilizations achieve solutions to their demands, which are not limited to purely economic issues but also focus on regaining the trust placed in them during the elections that led to Castillo's election as president of this South American republic. Furthermore, considering the measures adopted by the government to address the protests, with particular emphasis on the discursive and symbolic content with which Castillo referred to the protesters, as well as the administrative measures implemented, such as the deployment of security forces and the various curfews. All of this suggests that consensus between the citizenry and the executive branch will be difficult to achieve if the government itself delegitimizes the population's demands and is unable to activate coherent and democratic mechanisms to address the reality Peruvians face. Consequently, in the short term, it is likely that the protests will continue and intensify, possibly attracting new sectors of the population. Therefore, an increase in institutional violence can be expected as a result of Castillo's weak and disconnected approach to the protesters and the alarming number of deaths and injuries reported during the demonstrations on Wednesday, April 6, which resulted in one death and fifteen injuries (France 24, 2022).

In the medium term, understanding that Peruvian citizens have a strong disconnect from the executive branch, as experience has shown with the five presidents the country has had in the last five years, social discontent could lead to an increase in Castillo's inability to govern, who could continue resorting to violence by state agents to regulate the situation. In the long term, the repression and illegitimacy reflected by Castillo are likely to lead to two possible outcomes. The first would be a reduction in protests, provided that consensual agreements are reached between the parties that guarantee the well-being of the Peruvian population in social, economic, and political terms, thus stabilizing the notion of the executive's legitimacy. Conversely, the other scenario would entail Castillo's resignation due to a complete loss of legitimacy resulting from the disproportionate use of force by the police and his abuse of power as president. This would create pressure not only from protesters but also from Congress, which has already attempted to end the government twice. This latter scenario, beyond Castillo's resignation, would deepen the already protracted crisis of legitimacy in Peruvian democratic institutions, and, additionally, citizens would continue to face problems of political representation. a problem without effective solutions since the constitutional upheavals caused by Fujimori's hyper-presidentialism of the previous century.

References

FM, L. (2022, April 5). Peruvian government imposes curfew on Tuesday in Lima after protests. https://www.lafm.com.co/internacional/gobierno-peruano-impone-toque-de-queda-el-martes-en-lima-tras-protestas France. (2022). One dead and 15 injured in new day of protests in Peru. Retrieved from: https://www.france24.com/es/minuto-a-minuto/20220406-un-muerto-y-15-heridos-en-nueva-jornada-de-protestas-en-per%C3%BA Fowks, J. (2022, April 3). Protests in Peru over rising prices corner Castillo. El País. https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-04-03/las-protestas-en-peru-por-el-alza-de-precios-arrinconan-a-castillo.html Peruvian government declares state of emergency in Lima and Callao. (n.d.). CNN. Retrieved April 11, 2022, from https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/peru-pedro-castillo-estado-emergencia-inmovilidad-lima-paro-nacional-transportadores-bloqueos-jennifer-montoya-cafe-cnn/ Protests in Peru show the broad impact of Putin's war. (2022, April 7). CNN. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/04/07/peru-protestas-gasolina-guerra-ucrania-putin-trax/ Latin American countries whose economies are best prepared to face 2022. (n.d.). BBC News Mundo. Retrieved April 11, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-59763697 LR, R. (2022, April 6). Transporters stated that they have not yet decided whether to extend the strike. https://larepublica.pe/sociedad/2022/04/04/paro-de-transportistas-hoy-4-de-abril-ultimas-noticias-en-vivo-minuto-a-minuto-de-las-protestas-vias-bloqueadas-motivos-pronunciamientos-de-gremios-y-medidas-anunciadas-por-el-gobierno-alza-del-combustible-mtc-trujillo-chiclayo-piura-lima-cusco-arequipa-y-regiones/ Peru: 3 key points about the protests that led to the controversial state of emergency in Lima and Callao. (n.d.). BBC News Mundo. Retrieved April 11, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-60994789